Egypt take on Messi's Argentina with a continent watching. Our World Cup 2026 last-16 predictions and betting angle. Here's whether the Pharaohs survi
The World Cup round of 16 signs off today, and it saved the two number tens for last.
Messi against Salah. Two of the greatest of their generation, one last knockout stage, one of them going home tonight.
Argentina are the champions and heavy favourites, but they arrive off a near-death experience against Cape Verde, and Egypt are the last African side in this half of the bracket.
With Morocco already through and Algeria and Ghana knocked out by today's other two teams, the Pharaohs carry a whole continent's hopes into Atlanta. No pressure.
Then Vancouver gives us the quiet killer of the round.
Switzerland versus Colombia is the tie nobody is shouting about and everybody should fear, two mean defences, two organised sides, and a quarter-final place for whoever blinks last.
It will not be loud. It might just be the smartest 90 minutes of the day.
Argentina vs Egypt — Round of 16 — Atlanta Stadium
This is the biggest game of the day, and it is not just because of the two names on the shirts.
Argentina were twelve minutes from the biggest knockout shock in memory on Friday, trailing Cape Verde before a 111th-minute own goal rescued them 3-2.
Messi scored again, his 20th World Cup goal, a record only he owns, but a 40-year-old goalkeeper made the champions look mortal.
Scaloni has questions to answer, and Egypt have spent all week reading the same match report.
Because Egypt are exactly the kind of side who can punish a tired favourite.
Hossam Hassan sets them up in a disciplined mid-block and lives for the counter, and in Salah and Omar Marmoush he has two forwards who can turn one loose Argentine pass into a sprint the other way.
Salah played all 120 minutes against Australia carrying a hamstring niggle, and even at 80% he is the most dangerous man Egypt have had at a World Cup in decades.
If he is fit, Argentina's centre-backs, who wobbled against far less against Cape Verde, will not enjoy their evening.
The problem, and it is a big one, is the other end.
Egypt have conceded in six matches on the spin and rank among the leakiest sides left in the tournament, coughing up 5.4 expected goals.
Argentina, meanwhile, have scored eleven in four games and rarely need asking twice.
This is a shootout Egypt cannot win, so they will try to make it a chess match instead, sit deep, frustrate, spring Salah, and pray it stays scoreless long enough to matter.
History is not on their side either.
Argentina are on an eight-game winning run against African nations, having already seen off Algeria and Cape Verde this summer, and the Opta model gives Egypt just a 12.3% chance.
But knockout football does not care about models, and if the Pharaohs get to the hour still level, Atlanta gets very interesting.
Beat Argentina and Egypt become only the fifth African side ever to reach a World Cup quarter-final.
That is the prize, and that is why Lagos will be watching this one with its heart in its mouth.
Projected Argentina XI: Emiliano Martinez; Nahuel Molina, Cristian Romero, Lisandro Martinez, Nicolas Tagliafico; Rodrigo De Paul, Alexis Mac Allister, Enzo Fernandez, Thiago Almada; Lionel Messi, Lautaro Martinez.
Projected Egypt XI: Mostafa Shobeir; Mohamed Hany, Yasser Ibrahim, Rami Rabia, Karim Hafez; Hamdy Fathy, Marwan Ateya; Emam Ashour, Mohamed Salah, Omar Marmoush; Mostafa Zico.
Key absences/team news: Argentina have a doubt over left-back Facundo Medina, who limped off against Cape Verde, so Nicolas Tagliafico is set to start, with Julian Alvarez pushing Lautaro Martinez for a place alongside Messi.
Egypt have no fresh absentees, and crucially Salah has shaken off his hamstring scare to lead the line.
Prediction: Argentina 2-1 Egypt.
Tip: Both teams to score. Egypt have found the net in six straight, Salah and Marmoush on the break are the exact threat that nearly sank Argentina last time out, and the champions always score.
Switzerland vs Colombia — Round of 16 — Vancouver Stadium
Both teams lost their openers to nobody, Switzerland drew Qatar, Colombia drew Portugal and both have quietly become two of the hardest sides to beat left in the draw.
Colombia have conceded once in the entire tournament.
Switzerland are unbeaten and rode into the last 16 on a 2-0 win over Algeria.
This is the tightest tie of the round, and the bookies agree: barely a coin-flip separates them.
Colombia are the marginal favourites, and their plan is obvious, give Luis Diaz the ball in wide areas and let him ruin someone's afternoon.
The catch is that Diaz has been busy but goalless, repeatedly flagged offside, while 34-year-old James Rodriguez still pulls the strings from the middle.
They also lost striker Jhon Cordoba to a tournament-ending injury against Ghana, so Luis Suarez, who came off the bench to set up that winner, leads the line.
Switzerland will not blink.
Murat Yakin's side are compact, experienced and carried by a 20-year-old, Johan Manzambi, who has been the tournament's quiet revelation with three goals and two assists.
With Michel Aebischer and Luca Jaquez both injured, Granit Xhaka and Remo Freuler anchor a midfield built to strangle games.
Reach the last eight and Switzerland match their best World Cup since they hosted it in 1954.
Projected Switzerland XI: Gregor Kobel; Silvan Widmer, Manuel Akanji, Nico Elvedi, Ricardo Rodriguez; Remo Freuler, Granit Xhaka; Dan Ndoye, Johan Manzambi, Ruben Vargas; Breel Embolo.
Projected Colombia XI: Camilo Vargas; Daniel Munoz, Davinson Sanchez, Jhon Lucumi, Johan Mojica; Gustavo Puerta, Jefferson Lerma, Jhon Arias; James Rodriguez, Luis Suarez, Luis Diaz.
Key absences/team news: Switzerland are without Michel Aebischer and Luca Jaquez (both muscle injuries), handing the midfield to Xhaka and Freuler.
Colombia have lost Jhon Cordoba for the rest of the tournament (hamstring), with Luis Suarez stepping in, while captain James Rodriguez shakes off flu-like symptoms to start.
Prediction: Switzerland 0-0 Colombia (Colombia to edge extra time or penalties).
Tip: Under 2.5 goals. Two of the meanest defences left, a genuine coin-flip on paper, and a knockout neither side wants to lose — goals will be rationed here.
Banker Of The Day
Argentina to qualify. Not comfortable, not pretty, but through.
Egypt can trouble them and probably will, yet the gap in quality across the pitch is enormous, and over 90 minutes plus whatever follows, that usually decides it.
Argentina found a way past Cape Verde on a bad night; expect them to find one again.
Upset Special
Switzerland to knock Colombia out. The favourites tag sits with Colombia, but only just, and this is a Colombia attack that keeps getting Diaz into good spots and then forgetting the last bit.
Switzerland are unbeaten, playing their third straight game at this Vancouver venue, and organised enough to drag it into the kind of tight finish where their experience tells.
Back the Swiss to sneak it.
Two ties, two different kinds of tension.
One is a superstar farewell tour that Egypt want to gatecrash for a whole continent.
The other is a game of chess nobody wants to lose.
By tonight, Africa's last hope in this half is either dancing or done and Lagos already knows which way its heart is leaning.
18+. Bet responsibly. Odds and team news correct at the time of writing.
