Messi faces England for the first time ever, in his final World Cup. Our England vs Argentina prediction and tip — and why we're backing the upset.
Twenty-four years since these two met at a World Cup. Forty years since the Hand of God. And now Lionel Messi, in the last tournament of his life, faces England for the first time ever.
So here is our England vs Argentina prediction, and it is not the one the rest of the internet is writing.
Argentina have never lost a World Cup semi-final, not once, in their entire history.
England have reached the last four four times and won it once, in 1966, and have spent every year since being reminded of it.
But one of these teams goes to MetLife on Sunday, and the other goes to Miami for the match nobody wants to play.
The strange part?
England are not the underdogs everyone assumes.
Because Argentina have looked mortal in every knockout round, rescued by an own goal against Cape Verde, 2-0 down to Egypt, and needing extra time against ten-man Switzerland.
Meanwhile England have Bellingham, who has decided this tournament is his. And I am calling it now: the Three Lions go through.
Argentina have never lost a World Cup semi-final. England have never beaten Argentina in a World Cup knockout. So somebody's history is getting rewritten in Atlanta.
Messi's Last World Cup Match
Start with Messi, because everyone else will.
Eight goals, tied at the top of the Golden Boot race, and he has scored or assisted ten of Argentina's seventeen goals at this World Cup. That is not a captain contributing.
That is a 39-year-old carrying a nation on his back in the final month of his international career.
Now here is the detail that should terrify England. He has never played against them.
Not once, at any level, in a twenty-year career.
And he will not get another chance.
So if you think he has not thought about that, you have not been paying attention.
Why Argentina Look Beatable
But here is the thing nobody in the Argentina camp wants to say out loud: this team is not the machine that won in 2022.
They needed a 111th-minute own goal to survive Cape Verde.
Then they went two goals down to Egypt with eleven minutes left and needed a comeback for the ages.
And then they needed extra time to beat a Switzerland side that played more than fifty minutes with ten men.
Five knockout wins, and barely one of them convincing.
So take Messi out of this side and you have a good team, not a great one.
Of course, nobody takes Messi out of it but England are good enough to expose everything around him.
England's Bellingham Problem Is Argentina's Problem Too
Because England have their own story, and it is written in one man's handwriting.
Jude Bellingham has six goals and has dragged this team through every crisis it has walked into.
Two goals in two minutes against Mexico.
Then the equaliser and the extra-time winner against Norway, a team that had just knocked out Brazil.
He does not dominate matches, he decides them.
Kane has six of his own.
So between them, they are the reason England are here, and they are the reason Argentina should be nervous.
Still, the tactical battle is in midfield, and England have a problem there.
Declan Rice has been managing a neural hamstring and a back issue all tournament, then came off at half-time against Norway after a sickness bug ripped through the camp.
He is expected to be sharper by Wednesday.
And he needs to be, because Messi's entire game is dropping into the pockets between the lines and pulling a defence apart while Enzo Fernandez and Mac Allister run past him.
So if Rice is at 80%, that space opens up and Messi does not need it twice.
Team News And Predicted Line-Ups
Jarell Quansah, meanwhile, is still suspended.
Wednesday is the last match of his two-game ban for that studs-up challenge in Mexico City.
So England's back line is patched together again, against Julian Alvarez running the channels and Messi finding the seams.
Projected England XI: Jordan Pickford; Djed Spence, Ezri Konsa, Dan Burn, Nico O'Reilly; Declan Rice, Elliot Anderson; Bukayo Saka, Jude Bellingham, Anthony Gordon; Harry Kane.
Projected Argentina XI: Emiliano Martinez; Nahuel Molina, Facundo Medina, Lisandro Martinez, Nicolas Tagliafico; Leandro Paredes; Rodrigo De Paul, Alexis Mac Allister; Enzo Fernandez; Julian Alvarez, Lionel Messi.
Key absences/team news: England remain without the suspended Jarell Quansah, who serves the final game of his two-match ban.
Declan Rice, withdrawn at half-time against Norway after a sickness bug, is expected to be in better condition, while Ezri Konsa is fit after being substituted late in the quarter-final.
Jordan Henderson, who needed an operation on a wrist broken while celebrating the Mexico win, was on the bench against Norway and has not been ruled out.
Argentina, meanwhile, are fully fit: Messi is expected to start despite the eye knock he took from Granit Xhaka, and Cristian Romero has confirmed his early withdrawal in extra time was fatigue, not injury.
England vs Argentina Prediction And Betting Tip
Prediction: England 2-1 Argentina.
Tip: Both teams to score.
England have found the net in every match of this tournament, Argentina have conceded in every knockout tie, and neither defence has kept a clean sheet in the knockouts.
So Messi will get his moment. But England will answer it.
Upset Special
England to knock Argentina out. Everyone is writing the Messi farewell script. But I am not convinced the team behind him can hold the pen.
Because look at how Argentina actually got here.
An own goal in the 111th minute to survive Cape Verde. Two goals down to Egypt with eleven minutes left.
Extra time to beat a Switzerland side that spent more than fifty minutes with ten men. Five knockout ties, five rescues.
So that is not champion form, that is a side getting away with it, and sooner or later a good team stops letting you.
And England are that good team.
Bellingham has produced in every crisis this tournament has thrown at him: two goals in two minutes in Mexico City, then the equaliser and the extra-time winner against the Norway side that had just dumped out Brazil.
Kane has six of his own.
And unlike Cape Verde, Egypt and Switzerland, England have the quality to punish Argentina the moment Messi drops deep and leaves that midfield short of legs.
Of course, it is a call against history.
Argentina have never lost a World Cup semi-final, and England have never beaten them in a World Cup knockout.
So I know exactly what I am saying.
But history does not track back to cover Bellingham, and this Argentina side has been running on luck and a 39-year-old for a month.
So if Rice is fit and England win the middle, the fairytale dies in Atlanta.
Messi against England, one last time, with a World Cup final on the line. Forty years of history, one afternoon in Atlanta.
So whatever happens, do not blink.
18+. Bet responsibly. Odds and team news correct at the time of writing.
