Netherlands vs Morocco — World Cup's Tie of the Round

Netherlands vs Morocco is the tie of the Round of 32, the Atlas Lions against a Dutch defence that has leaked all tournament. Prediction & tip inside.

The World Cup knockouts are here and the first full day of three gives us two favourites trying not to slip and Netherlands vs Morocco could define the whole round. 

Brazil meet a Japan side nobody enjoys playing. 

Germany meet a Paraguay side built to make football miserable. 

And late on, in Monterrey, the Netherlands meet Morocco in the game everyone circled the moment the bracket dropped.

South Africa already fell to Canada yesterday, so the African count is down to eight and tonight one of the eight gets the biggest stage of the lot. 

If you only stay up for one game, make it the last one.

Morocco do not want your applause anymore. They want your spot in the last 16.

Brazil vs Japan — Round of 32 — Houston, 6pm (UK)

Brazil topped Group C and found their rhythm after that opening draw with Morocco, with Vinicius Junior already up to four goals. 

But Japan are the worst kind of opponent in a knockout: organised, patient and lethal on the counter. 

They held the Netherlands and have no fear of a famous shirt. 

Brazil are without the injured Raphinha, while Japan have Kubo ruled out and Itakura a doubt. 

Neymar is fit again but only as a substitute.

Prediction: Brazil 2-1 Japan after extra time.

Tip: Brazil to qualify. Japan are too good to patronise, but Brazil have too much individual punishment to actually go out — even if it takes 120 minutes.

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Germany vs Paraguay — Round of 32 — Boston, 9.30pm (UK)

Germany topped Group E, then promptly lost to Ecuador in a dead rubber, because they cannot help themselves. 

Paraguay are the opposite kind of team: they parked the bus to two clean sheets against Turkey and Australia and have not scored in a World Cup knockout game in their history. 

Nico Schlotterbeck is out for the tournament with an ankle injury, so Rudiger partners Tah, while Paraguay are without suspended Diego Gomez, their main set-piece threat.

Prediction: Germany 2-0 Paraguay.

Tip: Germany to win — banker of the day. Paraguay's low block is stubborn and Germany's defence leaks, but Musiala and Wirtz are too much for a side that cannot score in knockouts.

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Netherlands vs Morocco — Round of 32 — Monterrey, 2am (UK, Tue)

This is the biggest game of the round. Not just because both sides finished their groups on seven points. 

Not just because Morocco are still carrying that Qatar 2022 aura with extra muscle. 

This one has history, family ties, street-football roots and about 430,000 side conversations in the Netherlands before kick-off.

The Netherlands have the cleaner profile: they topped Group F, found their rhythm with Brobbey leading the line, and still have Van Dijk, Frenkie de Jong, Gravenberch and Gakpo. 

Dumfries and Brobbey had minor knocks but are passed fit. 

This is not a wounded Dutch side. 

But it is a leaky one, they have conceded in every single game so far, and Morocco have seen the tape.

Because Morocco do not look like a team enjoying a miracle anymore. 

They look like a team expecting to stay. Mazraoui, Issa Diop, Bouaddi and Ounahi all come back into the XI, Saibari has three goals already, Hakimi gives them thrust down the right and Brahim Diaz carries the magic. 

They beat Brazil to a standstill on day one. They are not here to wave at the cameras.

If the Atlas Lions win this, stop calling them dark horses. Horses do not stay dark after this many people have seen them coming.

Prediction: Netherlands 2-2 Morocco, Morocco to qualify on penalties.

Tip: Morocco double chance — upset special. The Dutch have pedigree, but Morocco have the structure, the tournament brain and the penalty nerve, and a Netherlands back line that has not kept a clean sheet all tournament.

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