France vs Spain — the World Cup Final Before the Final

De la Fuente called it the final before the final. He's right about that much. Our World Cup semi-final verdict, prediction and tip — inside.

Spain have beaten France twice in a row and it has gone to their heads. On Tuesday, France knock them out of the World Cup.

Luis de la Fuente called this one "a final before the final." He's right. It's just not going to end the way he thinks.

The numbers are embarrassing, and they're not Spain's friend

France have played six matches at this World Cup. They've won six. They've scored 16 goals — more than anyone.

Kylian Mbappe has eight of them, plus three assists, and he's now on 20 World Cup goals in 20 appearances. 

Ousmane Dembele has five, including a first-half hat-trick against Norway that was over before most of you had found a stream. 

Michael Olise has six assists in six games, one more and he equals Pele.

Six assists. In his first World Cup. From a lad half of England still argues about.

And that's before you get to Desire Doue and Bradley Barcola, who are fighting over the left flank like it's a hostage situation. 

Deschamps has a bench that would start for Spain.

Spain's clean sheets were a mirage. Belgium proved it.

Yes, Unai Simon went 560 minutes without conceding. A World Cup record. Very nice.

Then Charles De Ketelaere headed one in and the whole thing collapsed into a 2-1 scramble that needed Mikel Merino off the bench in the 88th minute to rescue it.

Look at how Spain actually got here. 

Goalless against Cape Verde. 1-0 against Uruguay. 1-0 against Portugal — Merino, late. 2-1 against Belgium — Merino, later. 

Every knockout win decided by a single goal, two of them settled in the closing minutes.

That's not a defence. That's a tightrope. And France are the wind.

Lamine Yamal is writing cheques his feet haven't cashed

"If France should fear anyone, it's us." "They can't be better than us." "Either France get to three finals in a row, or we beat them three times in a row."

Lovely. Now the receipts.

Lamine Yamal has one goal contribution at this entire World Cup. 

It came against Saudi Arabia in the group stage. Since then: nothing. Not a goal, not an assist, not one decisive moment in a knockout tie.

Mbappe has eight goals. Dembele has five. 

Yamal is talking like he's got seven and playing like he's got one, because he has got one.

He is a generational footballer. He is also, right now, a passenger with a microphone. 

There's a difference between confidence and doing the maths wrong in public.

The other side — and why it doesn't hold

Here's the case for Spain, and it's a real one. 

In 2010 they won a World Cup by boring the planet into submission, four straight 1-0s in the knockouts. 

Ugly wins still count. Grinding is a strategy. 

They've already done it to France twice, at Euro 2024 and in the Nations League, and they haven't lost in 36 matches.

Except 2010 Spain didn't win 1-0 because they defended well. 

They won 1-0 because Xavi and Iniesta kept the ball for seventy minutes and nobody else got a touch. Control was the defence.

This Spain doesn't control games. It survives them, then waits for Merino to come off the bench and save everyone. 

That isn't tiki-taka. That's a coin flip with a better accent.

And about that Euro 2024 win everyone keeps waving around, France played that tournament with Mbappe in a protective mask and barely a goal from open play in the whole competition. 

This is not that France. 

This is a France scoring 16 in six. 

Beating a man with a broken nose doesn't earn you the right to lecture him when he's healthy.

De la Fuente also reminded us Spain are "the only team to have beaten them in two semi-finals." Careful, Luis. Records exist to be finished.

The betting angle

Spain can't sit in a low block for 90 minutes. 

Yamal himself moaned that every side does that to them, so they've had no practice doing it themselves. They'll have to come out. 

And nobody comes out against Olise, Dembele and Mbappe and lives to talk about it.

Prediction: France 3-1 Spain.
Tip: France to win and over 2.5 goals. That back line has already been opened at this tournament, and the team who opened it was Belgium. 

France are not Belgium.

Place this bet on 1xBet

Double down

France won't just beat Spain on Tuesday. They'll end them. 

Bastille Day, a stadium in Texas, and a French front line in the form of their lives against a defence that has only just discovered it can be scored on.

Spain have spent three days telling every microphone in California that France should be frightened. 

By Tuesday night they'll understand something simpler: talking is what you do when the football has stopped doing it for you.

Yamal says there are two options. 

Here's a third — France 3, Spain 1, and Spain in the third-place match on Saturday, playing for a medal nobody wants in front of a stadium half full.

So tell me I'm wrong. Back any of these? Tell me what you're rolling with today.