Altitude, 87,000 fans and a Mexico side yet to concede. Our World Cup 2026 predictions for the Azteca clash and Brazil vs Norway. Here's who survives.
The World cup knockouts stop being polite today. Two giants, two very different ways to embarrass yourself.
Brazil have never beaten Norway.
Four attempts, zero wins, and now Erling Haaland is waiting in the last 16 with that stat sitting in his back pocket.
England, meanwhile, have to climb 2,200 metres to the Estadio Azteca and survive a Mexico side that has not conceded a single goal all tournament.
One of these favourites is walking into a history problem. The other is walking into thin air and 87,000 people who want them gone.
Both games are winnable for the big name.
Both are also the kind of tie that ends with a giant on the floor and a nation losing its mind.
That is the last 16 doing exactly what it is built to do.
Brazil vs Norway — Round of 16 — New York/New Jersey Stadium
Brazil scraped past Japan 2-1 with a Gabriel Martinelli goal in the 95th minute, which tells you everything.
Ancelotti's side were second best for a half, rescued it with individual quality, and walked off looking more nervous than a five-time world champion should.
Now Norway arrive with the one man who turns nervous into punished.
This is the tie nobody in the Brazil camp wanted to say out loud.
The Selecao have lost each of their last six World Cup knockout ties against European opposition since beating Germany in the 2002 final.
Add the fact that they have never beaten Norway in four meetings, including a 2-1 defeat at the 1998 World Cup and the "favourites" tag starts to feel like a trap with a yellow shirt on.
The game splits into two duels. Vinicius Jr against Norway's shaky back line, and Haaland against Gabriel Magalhaes.
Vini has scored in every group game and looks like a man enjoying himself.
Haaland has five of Norway's ten goals at this World cup and does not need many touches to end your summer.
Gabriel keeping him quiet is the single biggest job on the pitch tonight.
Brazil are patched up.
Lucas Paqueta is out with a thigh injury, Raphinha is not fit enough to start, and Wesley is injured, so 34-year-old Danilo slots in at right-back.
That is three regulars gone, and Norway are not the side you want to meet while reshuffling.
Ancelotti has the squad depth to cope, Endrick is pushing hard for a start but depth means nothing if Odegaard gets time to feed the big man.
Projected Brazil XI: Alisson; Danilo, Marquinhos, Gabriel, Douglas Santos; Bruno Guimaraes, Casemiro, Martinelli; Rayan, Matheus Cunha, Vinicius Junior.
Projected Norway XI: Orjan Nyland; Marcus Holmgren Pedersen, Kristoffer Ajer, Torbjorn Heggem, David Moller Wolfe; Patrick Berg, Sander Berge, Martin Odegaard; Antonio Nusa, Erling Haaland, Alexander Sorloth.
Key absences/team news: Brazil are without Lucas Paqueta (thigh) and Raphinha (hamstring, not yet fit to start), with Wesley also out, so Danilo starts at right-back and Endrick is pushing to come in.
Casemiro has shaken off a knock.
Norway are missing Julian Ryerson (thigh), which hands Marcus Holmgren Pedersen the right-back slot.
Prediction: Brazil 2-1 Norway.
Tip: Both teams to score. Norway have scored and conceded in every game, Haaland always finds a yard, and Brazil's defence has already shown it can be got at but the Selecao carry too much up top to be shut out.
Mexico vs England — Round of 16 — Estadio Azteca
This is the biggest game of the day, and it is not close.
England are not walking into a football match.
They are walking into a cathedral 2,200 metres above sea level, packed with 87,000 Mexicans, against a host side that has not conceded a goal in four games and has not lost a competitive match at home in 13 years.
Tuchel called it a proper World Cup night. He was being polite.
Mexico are flying.
They swept the group without conceding, then dismantled a dangerous Ecuador side 2-0 to finally break a 40-year knockout curse, their longest-ever run of knockout defeats, ended in one euphoric night at the Azteca.
Julian Quinones has been the tournament's breakout menace, Raul Jimenez is turning back the clock, and 17-year-old Gilberto Mora is bossing midfields like he pays the rent there.
This is not a plucky home side. This is a proper team on a proper wave.
England, by contrast, are surviving rather than convincing.
They needed a Harry Kane double in the 75th and 86th minutes to come from behind and beat DR Congo, having gone a goal down and looked laboured for an hour.
Kane now has five goals and is England's all-time leading World Cup scorer, but the team around him has spent this tournament looking like it is waiting for something to click.
The altitude is a brutal place to still be searching.
Here is the tactical trap.
Tuchel wants to build through a Rice-Anderson double pivot and release Bellingham, but pressing and covering ground at this altitude drains legs fast, and Mexico's high press feeds off exactly that.
England have the better individuals.
Opta still makes them favourites but individual quality has to survive 90 minutes of thin air and a crowd that treats every Mexican tackle like a goal.
If it goes to extra time, and it might, the advantage tilts towards the home side and the ghosts of 1986.
England's defence is also held together with tape.
Reece James (hamstring) and Jarell Quansah (ankle) are both out, leaving Tuchel an awkward right-back call.
Djed Spence looks the likeliest fix, with Ezri Konsa the other option against the in-form Quinones.
That is the worst possible time to have a makeshift right side.
Projected Mexico XI: Raul Rangel; Jorge Sanchez, Cesar Montes, Johan Vasquez, Jesus Gallardo; Erik Lira, Luis Romo, Gilberto Mora; Roberto Alvarado, Raul Jimenez, Julian Quinones.
Projected England XI: Jordan Pickford; Djed Spence, John Stones, Marc Guehi, Nico O'Reilly; Declan Rice, Elliot Anderson; Noni Madueke, Jude Bellingham, Anthony Gordon; Harry Kane.
Key absences/team news: Mexico have a clean bill of health and Aguirre is expected to name an unchanged side from the Ecuador win.
England are without Reece James (hamstring) and Jarell Quansah (ankle), forcing a makeshift right-back, likely Djed Spence while Bukayo Saka, still not fully sharp, is pushing for a start but may begin on the bench.
Prediction: Mexico 1-1 England (England to edge it late or on penalties).
Tip: Under 2.5 goals. Mexico have not conceded all tournament, altitude knockouts turn cagey, and both managers know one mistake decides it, this has low-scoring grind written all over it.
Banker Of The Day
Brazil to qualify. Not Brazil to win in 90, Brazil to still be standing at the end.
Even patched up and nervy, the depth gap between the Selecao and Norway is enormous, and over 90 minutes plus whatever comes after, that quality usually tells.
Norway have Haaland; Brazil have eleven problems for Norway to solve.
Upset Special
Mexico to knock England out. Yes, England are favourites on paper.
But the Azteca at altitude, a host nation that has not conceded a goal, a crowd of 87,000, and an England side that has laboured through this tournament, that is how upsets are built.
If Mexico's clean sheet holds past the hour, the crowd does the rest.
I have a bad feeling for the Three Lions, and I do not think I am alone.
Two favourites, two traps.
Brazil against their own history, England against gravity itself.
By Monday morning, at least one of them could be explaining to a nation how it all went wrong at the World Cup.
Back any of these? Tell me what you're rolling with today.
18+. Bet responsibly. Odds and team news correct at the time of writing.
