Norway vs England Prediction — World Cup Quarter-Final

Quansah suspended, Henderson out, Guehi and James doubts — and Haaland waiting. Our Norway vs England World Cup QF prediction and tip.

England walk into the most in-form striker on the planet with half a back four missing. Somebody in that camp has done the maths, and it is why nobody is sleeping.

Jarell Quansah is suspended. Jordan Henderson is out of the tournament with a broken wrist, picked up in a collision with an advertising hoarding, which is the most England injury ever recorded. 

Marc Guehi has a hamstring strain. Reece James is still a doubt. 

Declan Rice has been missing training with the sickness bug going round the squad. 

And standing opposite that hospital chart is Erling Haaland, who has scored in every single game at this World Cup and has just dumped Brazil out on his own.

Win, and you are in an Atlanta semi-final on Wednesday against Argentina or Switzerland. 

Lose, and a tournament that has been carried by two players ends in Miami.

England have kept two clean sheets in five games and are missing half their back line. 

Haaland has scored in every match he has played at this World Cup. 

You do not need a tactics board to see the problem.

The Tie

This is the quarter-final nobody left in the draw wanted. 

Norway, a nation of five million at their first World Cup since 1998, have gone from a nice story to a genuine problem. 

They beat Ivory Coast, then walked into MetLife and knocked out Brazil 2-1 with a Haaland brace. 

They have scored in every game. They have also conceded in every game. 

This is not a team that does boring, and that suits them perfectly.

England, meanwhile, are surviving on individual brilliance and a prayer. 

Bellingham's brace and a Kane penalty got them through the Azteca 3-2 with ten men, which took real character.

But they shipped two goals doing it, and they have kept two clean sheets in five matches. 

Kane and Bellingham have scored ten of England's eleven goals between them. 

That is either a devastating spine or a dangerous dependency, and tonight we find out which.

The back four is the real worry. 

Quansah is banned for two matches after his red card in Mexico City. Henderson is gone. 

Guehi may be replaced by Dan Burn purely because Tuchel wants someone physical enough to wrestle Haaland. 

Reece James, Djed Spence and Ezri Konsa are all being weighed at right-back. 

Reshuffling your defence against the form striker on earth is not a plan. It is a hope.

Because Haaland is frightening right now. 

Seven goals, in the thick of the Golden Boot race, and he has converted 39% of his shots, the best rate of any player with 15-plus attempts at a World Cup since Gary Lineker in 1986. 

Behind him, Odegaard picks the locks. Norway are the fourth-highest scorers at the tournament with twelve goals. 

But they have conceded nine, in every single game, and that is England's way back in: Kane against a leaky Norwegian back line is a mismatch of its own. 

This will not be a chess match. It will be a shootout, and both strikers know it.

Projected Norway XI: Orjan Nyland; Julian Ryerson, Kristoffer Ajer, Torbjorn Heggem, David Moller Wolfe; Patrick Berg, Sander Berge, Martin Odegaard; Alexander Sorloth, Erling Haaland, Antonio Nusa.

Projected England XI: Jordan Pickford; Djed Spence, Ezri Konsa, Dan Burn, Nico O'Reilly; Declan Rice, Elliot Anderson; Bukayo Saka, Jude Bellingham, Anthony Gordon; Harry Kane.

Key absences/team news: England are without the suspended Jarell Quansah (two-match ban) and Jordan Henderson, ruled out of the rest of the tournament with a broken wrist. 

Marc Guehi (hamstring) and Reece James (hamstring) are both doubts, while Declan Rice has missed training with a sickness bug sweeping the camp. 

Norway have a fully fit squad, with David Moller Wolfe recovered and Andreas Schjelderup pushing to start after setting up both goals against Brazil. 

Antonio Nusa is one booking away from missing a potential semi-final.

Prediction: Norway 2-2 England (England to edge it late or on penalties).

Tip: Both teams to score. 

Norway have scored AND conceded in all five games, England's patched-up defence meets the most clinical striker at the tournament, and Kane already has two braces here. 

Goals at both ends is the shape of this match.

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Upset Special Of The Day

Norway to knock England out. Commit to it. England are missing a suspended defender, have lost another player to a broken wrist, have a centre-back and a right-back carrying hamstring problems and a midfielder too ill to train and they are walking into Erling Haaland at the peak of his powers. 

Norway have scored in every match. England have two clean sheets in five. This is not a hunch, it is arithmetic. 

If Haaland gets two clean sights of goal, the Three Lions are going home, and Bellingham's brilliance will not be enough to save them.

England have the better squad, the deeper bench and the tournament experience. 

They also have a defence held together with tape and a striker from another planet running at it. One of those things decides tonight.

Back any of these? Tell me what you're rolling with today.

18+. Bet responsibly. Odds and team news correct at the time of writing.