World Cup Round of 32 prediction as nine African teams chase knockout shocks, with Morocco and Senegal in danger.
The World Cup group stage is over. The speeches are dead. Now it is win or go home.
The first ever 48-team World Cup has reached the Round of 32, and Africa did not sneak into the room. Africa walked in loudly.
South Africa, Morocco, Ivory Coast, DR Congo, Senegal, Algeria, Egypt, Cape Verde and Ghana are all still alive. Nine teams. Nine chances. Nine different ways to make the favourites uncomfortable.
South Africa open the knockouts against Canada in Los Angeles, but the real headline of this round is simple: can Africa stop being a nice story and start becoming a problem?
Netherlands vs Morocco has fire. England vs DR Congo has Premier League subplots.
Belgium vs Senegal is a trap wearing a Belgian shirt. Argentina vs Cape Verde is the sort of match where everyone laughs until the underdog survives 25 minutes and the stadium starts acting funny.
Screenshot line: Knockout football does not ask who had the better story. It asks who can still breathe after 90 minutes.
Note: confirmed line-ups are released close to kick-off. The team news below uses the latest projected XIs, injuries and suspension reports available at writing time.
South Africa vs Canada — Sunday, June 28 — Los Angeles Stadium
South Africa’s reward for escaping Group A is a Canada side that can score quickly and make matches feel like track meets.
Both countries are in their first World Cup knockout game, so nobody gets to pretend this is normal. One win and history becomes louder.
Bafana Bafana are without suspended Themba Zwane, which hurts their calm in possession.
Canada are missing Ismael Kone, while Alphonso Davies, Stephen Eustáquio and Alfie Jones are fitness worries.
That is not nothing.
Canada have more forward power through Jonathan David and Cyle Larin, but South Africa have already shown they can suffer without collapsing.
Projected XI note: South Africa are expected to lean on Ronwen Williams, Teboho Mokoena, Thapelo Maseko and Evidence Makgopa.
Canada should still build around Maxime Crepeau, Alistair Johnston, Jonathan David and Larin, with Davies a late call.
Prediction: South Africa 1-2 Canada.
Football tip: Canada to edge it. Bafana have the heart and the story, but Canada have slightly more cutting edge in the final third.
Brazil vs Japan — Monday, June 29 — Houston Stadium
Brazil are not here for drama. They topped Group C, found rhythm after the Morocco draw, and now face a Japan side that has already shown it can trouble elite teams.
If Brazil are casual, Japan will make them pay.
Raphinha remains a concern after a hamstring issue, while Japan have Takefusa Kubo doubtful and Ko Itakura being monitored.
Vinicius Junior is the obvious headline, but this game may be decided by Brazil’s full-backs and Japan’s ability to escape pressure.
Projected XI note: Brazil are expected to start Alisson, Danilo, Marquinhos, Gabriel, Douglas Santos, Bruno Guimaraes, Casemiro, Rayan, Paqueta, Vinicius Junior and Matheus Cunha.
Japan should stay in their 3-4-2-1 shape with Zion Suzuki, Tomiyasu, Itakura, Doan, Kamada, Maeda and Ueda involved.
Prediction: Brazil 2-1 Japan after extra time.
Football tip: Brazil to qualify. Japan are too good to be patronised, but Brazil have too much individual punishment.
Germany vs Paraguay — Monday, June 29 — Boston Stadium
Germany topped Group E, then still found a way to give people something to complain about by losing to Ecuador. Very German efficiency, just with bonus anxiety.
Paraguay scraped through from Group D and will love making this ugly.
Nico Schlotterbeck is a major absence for Germany after an ankle injury, while Nathaniel Brown has been monitored.
Paraguay are compact, stubborn and allergic to entertainment when survival is on the line.
Projected XI note: Germany should still have Neuer, Kimmich, Tah, Musiala, Wirtz, Sane and Havertz in the core.
Paraguay will lean on Gustavo Gomez, Miguel Almiron and their low-block discipline.
Prediction: Germany 3-1 Paraguay.
Football tip: Germany to win. Paraguay will slow the tempo, but Germany have too many technicians to stay trapped forever.
Netherlands vs Morocco — Monday, June 29 — Monterrey Stadium
This is the biggest game of the round. Not just because both teams finished their groups with seven points. Not just because Morocco are still carrying that Qatar 2022 aura with extra muscle.
This one has history, family ties, street football roots and about 430,000 side conversations in the Netherlands before kick-off.
Morocco in Monterrey is not a random subplot.
That is where they made African World Cup history in 1986, becoming the first African side to reach the knockouts.
Now they return with a stronger team, more belief, and a squad full of players who understand Dutch football from the inside.
The Netherlands have the cleaner tournament profile: they topped Group F, looked better after the shaky start, and still have Van Dijk, Frenkie de Jong, Gravenberch, Gakpo and Dumfries.
Denzel Dumfries and Brian Brobbey had minor concerns but are expected to be available. So this is not a wounded Dutch side. This is a proper test.
But Morocco do not look like a team enjoying a miracle anymore.
They look like a team expecting to stay. Saibari has goals. Hakimi has thrust. Amrabat has bite. Mazraoui gives them calm.
If the Atlas Lions win this, stop calling them dark horses. Horses do not stay dark after this many people have seen them coming.
Projected XI note: Netherlands are expected to use Verbruggen, Dumfries, Van Dijk, Van de Ven, Gravenberch, De Jong, Reijnders, Gakpo and Brobbey.
Morocco should lean on Bono, Hakimi, Mazraoui, Amrabat, Saibari and En-Nesyri.
Prediction: Netherlands 2-2 Morocco, Morocco to qualify on penalties.
Football tip: Morocco double chance. The Netherlands have pedigree, but Morocco have the balance, the belief and the emotional knife for this game.
Ivory Coast vs Norway — Tuesday, June 30 — Dallas
Ivory Coast get Haaland. Lovely. Just what every African side wants after breakfast: a 6ft 4in goal machine with Martin Odegaard feeding him like a government project.
But the Elephants are not tourists.
They came through a rough group and still have Kessie, Sangare, Amad Diallo and Nicolas Pepe.
Wilfried Singo is a concern, while Norway have Julian Ryerson listed as a doubt. If Ivory Coast keep Haaland quiet for long enough, this becomes very interesting.
Projected XI note: Ivory Coast should go with Yahia Fofana, Kossounou, Diomande, Kessie, Sangare, Amad and Pepe.
Norway’s spine remains Nyland, Ajer, Odegaard, Sander Berge, Sorloth and Haaland.
Prediction: Ivory Coast 2-1 Norway.
Football tip: Ivory Coast to qualify. Norway have the biggest striker in the match, but Ivory Coast have enough midfield bite to stop this becoming a Haaland highlights package.
France vs Sweden — Tuesday, June 30 — New York/New Jersey
France are France. Even when something is wrong, the bench still looks like it could qualify on its own.
Sweden are dangerous, but they arrive with defensive injury trouble and that is not the ideal way to greet Mbappe.
William Saliba is a concern for France, while Sweden have Victor Lindelöf doubtful and Isak Hien ruled out.
France will attack the gaps between Sweden’s centre-backs and wing-backs until something snaps.
Projected XI note: France should still have Maignan, Kounde, Upamecano, Theo Hernandez, Tchouaméni, Koné, Olise, Dembele, Doue and Mbappe.
Sweden will need Isak, Gyokeres and Elanga to turn limited chances into real damage.
Prediction: France 2-0 Sweden.
Football tip: France to win. Sweden have forwards who can hurt anyone, but France have too much pace and too many solutions.
Mexico vs Ecuador — Tuesday, June 30 — Mexico City
Mexico at the Azteca in a knockout game is not just a fixture. It is a national pressure cooker with music outside.
Ecuador will not care. They have Caicedo, Pacho and enough legs to turn the middle of the pitch into a fight.
Mexico topped Group A and still have not conceded the kind of damage that makes the home crowd panic.
Ecuador came through as a third-place side, which means they are dangerous without having the burden of being loved by the room.
Projected XI note: Mexico should build around Malagon, Montes, Edson Alvarez, Luis Chavez, Julian Quinones and Santiago Gimenez.
Ecuador’s core should include Galindez, Pacho, Hincapie, Caicedo, Plata and Enner Valencia.
Prediction: Mexico 1-0 Ecuador.
Football tip: Mexico to qualify. Not pretty, not soft, not for neutral joy. Just Azteca pressure and one big moment.
England vs DR Congo — Wednesday, July 1 — Atlanta
England topped Group L.
DR Congo got here the hard way, beating Uzbekistan 3-1 after going behind and dragging themselves into the last 32 as one of the best third-placed teams.
England will be expected to win. That is exactly why this one can get noisy.
Thomas Tuchel has a right-back problem, with Reece James out and Jarell Quansah a concern.
DR Congo have no major listed injuries and have Premier League familiarity through Aaron Wan-Bissaka and Yoane Wissa. That matters.
England cannot pretend they are facing strangers from a scouting PDF.
DR Congo will sit, scrap and try to release Wissa and Bakambu into space. England have Kane, Bellingham, Saka and Rashford. The quality gap is real. But so is the trap.
Projected XI note: England should use Pickford, Nico O’Reilly, Guehi, Konsa, Djed Spence, Rice, Elliot Anderson, Rashford, Bellingham, Saka and Kane.
DR Congo are likely to go with Mpasi, Masuaku, Mbemba, Tuanzebe, Wan-Bissaka, Moutoussamy, Sadiki, Bakambu and Wissa.
Prediction: England 2-1 DR Congo.
Football tip: England to win, but DR Congo to score. The Leopards have enough transition threat to make this more annoying than England fans want.
Belgium vs Senegal — Wednesday, July 1 — Seattle
Belgium won Group G. Senegal came through third after a group that gave them France and Norway, because apparently stress is now a CAF subscription plan. This is a proper African chance.
Belgium are missing Zeno Debast, while Senegal have Edouard Mendy ruled out.
That changes both boxes.
Belgium still have Courtois, De Bruyne, Doku, Trossard and De Ketelaere. Senegal still have Koulibaly, Mane, Sarr and Nicolas Jackson.
If Senegal press smartly and attack Belgium’s centre-backs early, they can make this a fight.
If De Bruyne gets time, he will start distributing punishment like invoices.
Projected XI note: Belgium should use Courtois, De Cuyper, Mechele, Castagne, Tielemans, De Bruyne, Trossard, Doku and De Ketelaere.
Senegal are projected with Mory Diaw in goal, Koulibaly, Niakhate, Diatta, Lamine Camara, Pape Gueye, Idrissa Gueye, Mané, Sarr and Jackson.
Prediction: Belgium 2-1 Senegal.
Football tip: Both teams to score. Senegal have the runners to hurt Belgium, but Belgium still have the better final pass.
USA vs Bosnia and Herzegovina — Wednesday, July 1 — San Francisco Bay Area
USA topped Group D and now get the kind of knockout draw hosts are supposed to take seriously, not celebrate too loudly.
Bosnia have Džeko, Demirovic, Kolasinac and enough experience to make this far from a party.
The US are still monitoring Cristian Roldan and Auston Trusty.
Bosnia have Amar Dedic as a doubt.
Pulisic, Balogun and McKennie should give the hosts enough attacking threat, but knockout football has a funny way of making “should” look stupid.
Projected XI note: USA are expected to start Freese, Robinson, Richards, Ream, Freeman, Adams, Tillman, Pulisic, McKennie, Dest and Balogun.
Bosnia should have Vasilj, Kolasinac, Katic, Muharemovic, Bajraktarevic, Demirovic and Dzeko involved.
Prediction: USA 2-0 Bosnia and Herzegovina.
Football tip: USA to qualify. The hosts have more pace, more balance and a crowd that will not allow them to sleepwalk.
Spain vs Austria — Thursday, July 2 — Los Angeles
Spain won Group H unbeaten and without conceding. That is serious.
But they still feel like a side one injury away from turning tiki-taka into therapy.
Nico Williams, Yeremy Pino and Victor Munoz are all concerns, so Lamine Yamal may have even more responsibility out wide.
Austria have no listed injuries and will come with pressing, structure and Sabitzer being annoying in all the right ways.
Projected XI note: Spain should build around Unai Simón, Cucurella, Laporte, Cubarsi, Rodri, Pedri, Dani Olmo, Lamine Yamal and Oyarzabal.
Austria’s core is Schlager, Alaba, Lienhart, Laimer, Seiwald, Sabitzer, Schmid and Arnautovic.
Prediction: Spain 2-0 Austria.
Football tip: Spain to win. Austria can press, but Spain have the control and the defensive record to squeeze this game dry.
Portugal vs Croatia — Thursday, July 2 — Toronto
Ronaldo vs Modric. That sells itself.
Portugal finished second in Group K after drawing with Colombia, while Croatia finished second in Group L after beating Ghana. Two old Real Madrid ghosts. One knockout ticket.
Portugal have no listed injuries and should have Ronaldo, Bruno, Vitinha, João Neves and Ruben Dias available.
Croatia also have no listed injuries, which means Modric, Kovacic, Gvardiol and Perisic get one more big stage to annoy the football internet.
Projected XI note: Portugal should start Diogo Costa, Nuno Mendes, Rúben Dias, Cancelo, Joao Neves, Vitinha, Bruno Fernandes, João Félix, Pedro Neto and Ronaldo.
Croatia should build around Livakovic, Gvardiol, Sutalo, Stanisic, Modric, Kovacic, Perisic and Budimir.
Prediction: Portugal 2-1 Croatia.
Football tip: Portugal to qualify. Croatia will make it emotional, but Portugal have more legs around the old legends.
Switzerland vs Algeria — Thursday, July 2 — Vancouver
Algeria got through after that wild 3-3 draw with Austria.
They are alive, barely, and that can be dangerous. Switzerland are calmer, more balanced and painfully organised, which is a polite way of saying they can bore you into a mistake.
Algeria are without Mohammed Amoura, which is a big blow to their transition game. Switzerland have Miro Muheim as a doubt but still have Kobel, Akanji, Xhaka, Freuler and Embolo to lean on.
Projected XI note: Switzerland should use Kobel, Rodriguez, Elvedi, Akanji, Widmer, Freuler, Xhaka, Vargas, Manzambi, Sow and Embolo.
Algeria are expected to go with Luca Zidane, Ait-Nouri, Bensebaini, Mandi, Belghali, Bentaleb, Chaïbi, Aouar, Maza, Mahrez and Gouiri.
Prediction: Switzerland 1-1 Algeria, Algeria to qualify on penalties.
Football tip: Algeria double chance. Switzerland are tidy, but Algeria have just enough chaos and Mahrez magic to stretch this into extra time.
Australia vs Egypt — Friday, July 3 — Dallas
Egypt finished second in Group G and now get a very winnable tie against Australia.
That sentence alone is dangerous, because African teams have taught us to fear “winnable” more than “impossible”.
Mohamed Salah is a doubt after a minor hamstring issue against Iran.
Hamdy Fathy and Hassan Abdelmaguid are out, and Mohamed Ahmed Abdelmonem is suspended.
Australia are without Mathew Leckie and Jacob Italiano. This is not a clean team-news sheet. This is a medical report with football attached.
Projected XI note: Australia should lean on Beach, Souttar, Circati, Irvine, O’Neill, Bos, Volpato, Metcalfe and Irankunda.
Egypt should still have Shobeir, Hany, Yasser Ibrahim, Marwan Attia, Emam Ashour, Ziko and Marmoush, with Salah a late call.
Prediction: Australia 1-2 Egypt.
Football tip: Egypt to qualify. Even with Salah not 100%, Marmoush and Ashour give them enough final-third quality.
Argentina vs Cape Verde — Friday, July 3 — Miami
Cape Verde drew all three group games and somehow turned stubbornness into a knockout place.
Spain could not beat them. Uruguay could not beat them. Saudi Arabia could not push them out.
Now they get Argentina, because football likes to reward miracles by sending Messi to investigate.
Argentina won all three group games and look like champions who know exactly what they are.
Cristian Romero is a doubt, but Messi, Lautaro, Enzo, Mac Allister and De Paul are expected to start.
Cape Verde have Telmo Arcanjo as a doubt, but the bigger issue is surviving Argentina’s first wave without turning the match into a training drill.
Projected XI note: Argentina should start Emiliano Martinez, Tagliafico, Lisandro Martínez, Otamendi, Molina, De Paul, Enzo, Mac Allister, Messi and Lautaro.
Cape Verde should lean on Vozinha, Pico Lopes, Diney, Kevin Pina, Ryan Mendes and Dailon Livramento.
Prediction: Argentina 2-0 Cape Verde.
Football tip: Argentina to qualify. Cape Verde can frustrate anyone, but Argentina have too many ways to finally open the lock.
Colombia vs Ghana — Friday, July 3 — Kansas City
This is a rough draw for Ghana. Colombia won Group K, stayed unbeaten, and look like one of those South American sides nobody wants to meet when the match gets hot.
Ghana came through third from Group L and now need to turn survival into something sharper.
Colombia have no listed injuries and can start Luis Díaz, James Rodriguez, Jhon Arias and Luis Suarez.
Ghana have Antoine Semenyo as a doubt, and that matters because his direct running is exactly what they need against Colombia’s back line.
Still, Ghana have Partey, Jordan Ayew, Kamaldeen Sulemana and enough tournament scar tissue to stay in the fight.
But if Colombia score early, this could become a long night of Ghana chasing shadows and blaming the draw.
Projected XI note: Colombia should use Vargas, Mojica, Sanchez, Lucumi, Munoz, Lerma, Puerta, Arias, Luis Díaz, James and Luis Suarez.
Ghana are projected with Benjamin Asare, Gideon Mensah, Adjetey, Luckassen, Partey, Sibo, Owusu, Sulemana, Jordan Ayew and possibly Semenyo.
Prediction: Colombia 2-1 Ghana.
Football tip: Both teams to score. Colombia should have more quality, but Ghana have enough pace to make them defend properly.
Banker Of The Day
France to beat Sweden. Sweden have forwards, yes, but France have Mbappé, Dembélé, Olise, Doué and a bench that looks like an illegal cheat code. If you want the safest football call from the round, that is it.
Upset Special
Morocco to knock out the Netherlands.
Not because it sounds nice for Africa. Because the evidence is there.
Morocco have the structure, the tournament brain, the penalty nerve and the emotional edge for this exact kind of night.
Africa got nine teams into the Round of 32.
Now comes the part that separates celebration from legacy. Getting here was historic.
Staying here is how you make the whole tournament uncomfortable.
Back any of these? Tell me what you're rolling with today.
