Man City and PSG primed for a showdown in the second semi-finals

Pep Guardiola said he didn't sleep well as he was thinking about Neymar and Mbappe before Man City vs PSG Champions League semi-final ma...

Pep Guardiola said he didn't sleep well as he was thinking about Neymar and Mbappe before Man City vs PSG Champions League semi-final match.

What to do with PSG? Last season's Champions League runner-up has looked mortal in league play while eliminating Barcelona and Bayern Munich in the Champions League.

Currently, in a tight Ligue 1 title race, PSG is scoring half a goal less per game compared to last season (2.3 to 2.8).

For all the quality in the PSG team, one would actually expect them to be favourites but they play against an equally talented European side, one that just won the Carabao Cup in England and for the fourth straight time too.

In the UCL knockout stage, PSG has been fortunate to score seven goals from 3.3 expected goals in the first legs against Barcelona and Bayern -- and also unfortunate to get only two goals from 3.4 expected goals (and several other near misses) in the second legs.

Coming so close to the title last season after several missed chances, this is a great opportunity for PSG to finally join the elite clubs by landing the UCL, but it’s the same story for their opponents on the night too.

Manchester City hired Pep Guardiola not for domestic dominance but for the elite titles which have eluded them in weird fashions since the Spaniard’s arrival, losing to Lyon and Monaco at the quarter-final stage at various points where they were clear favourites.

Both clubs share similar stories but City aren’t struggling in the Premier League, in fact, they are just a win away from the title if United loses their next.

Who wants it more? Both backed by rich sugar daddies and with so many talents on either side, City will attack from the get-go and it might be down to the quality of ideas in the dugout.

Mauricio Pochetino is a factor, while City have been perennial underachievers in Europe, the Argentine manager is known for bottling chances to win a title, this is a big stage where they once met and Guardiola came out second best, he has another chance now.

PSG will probably get a good counter opportunity or two, but City won't surrender as many of those quick strikes as Bayern did. On sequences of five passes or fewer, City has allowed 22 goals and 201 shots this league season, compared to Bayern's 37 goals and 276 shots in two fewer games.

City will have the majority of the chances, and that (along with City having won 27 of its last 30 games) makes plus money very appealing.

SPI has Man City at 53 percent to win this game and 81 percent to advance, based in part on PSG's aforementioned middling league form.

I think those projections are a little high, given PSG's talent and Champions League mettle, but still in the neighbourhood. Even dropping the SPI odds 10 percentage points each, the current prices are still worth playing.