Our World Cup 2026 predictions for Portugal vs Spain and USA vs Belgium — Ronaldo against Spain's wall, plus the banker and the upset. Here's the call
Iberian derby for a World Cup quarter-final place, and a co-host trying not to become a punchline. Today has range.
Portugal versus Spain is the tie the whole tournament circled the moment the bracket dropped.
Old neighbours, old grudges, Ronaldo chasing one more headline against a Spain side that has not conceded a single goal all summer.
Then, hours later, the USA carry co-host pride into a Belgium game they suddenly have to win without their best striker.
One match is a heavyweight fight. The other is a nation holding its breath.
The bracket has already started eating names.
Germany, the Netherlands, Japan and now Brazil are all gone.
Haaland put two past the Selecao last night, so if you backed our upset special, fair play, you were paying attention.
Today the guillotine keeps swinging.
Portugal vs Spain — Round of 16 — Dallas Stadium
This is the biggest game of the day, and it might be the biggest game of the round.
Two teams who both want the ball, both average over 60% possession, and both believe they are the smartest side left in the tournament.
Something has to give in Arlington, and it will not be pretty for whoever loses.
Spain arrive as the steadier team, and it is not close.
Four games, four clean sheets, not a single goal conceded, and a 3-0 dismantling of Austria that made a pressing side look ordinary.
Rodri sits in front of the back four like a bouncer, Pedri sets the tempo, and a 17-year-old named Lamine Yamal keeps doing things teenagers are not supposed to do.
When Yamal started against Austria, Spain looked like champions.
That is the problem waiting for Portugal.
Portugal, by contrast, have blown hot and cold and mostly lukewarm.
A 1-1 draw with DR Congo, a 0-0 with Colombia, and a last-16 survival job against Croatia that needed a 94th-minute Goncalo Ramos winner and a VAR call in the final second to rescue them.
Ronaldo got his first-ever World Cup knockout goal from the spot, then watched Ramos win it off the bench.
That substitution is the whole debate: Martinez knows Ramos is on fire, yet Ronaldo's name keeps writing itself into the XI.
Spain have their own worries up front.
Nico Williams (adductor) and Yeremy Pino (shoulder) are both expected to miss out, though neither is a guaranteed starter.
So Lamine Yamal and Alex Baena keep the flanks with Mikel Oyarzabal through the middle.
Yamal, Laporte and Porro were managed carefully in training but should all be fit.
For Portugal, the only real selection headache is on the right, where Pedro Neto, Bernardo Silva and Francisco Conceicao are scrapping for one shirt.
Projected Portugal XI: Diogo Costa; Joao Cancelo, Ruben Dias, Renato Veiga, Nuno Mendes; Joao Neves, Vitinha; Pedro Neto, Bruno Fernandes, Rafael Leao; Cristiano Ronaldo.
Projected Spain XI: Unai Simon; Pedro Porro, Pau Cubarsi, Aymeric Laporte, Marc Cucurella; Rodri, Pedri; Lamine Yamal, Mikel Oyarzabal, Alex Baena.
Key absences/team news: Spain are likely without Nico Williams (adductor) and Yeremy Pino (shoulder), both at risk of missing the rest of the tournament.
But Yamal, Laporte and Porro have shaken off managed workloads and should start.
Portugal have no fresh injuries, with Goncalo Ramos pushing hard to start ahead of Ronaldo after his winner against Croatia.
Prediction: Portugal 1-2 Spain.
Tip: Spain to qualify.
Their defensive record is the most reliable thing in this tournament, and Portugal have not looked like a functioning attack for two weeks, back La Roja to advance, in 90 or beyond.
USA vs Belgium — Round of 16 — Seattle Stadium
The co-hosts are still standing, but they walk into this one with one hand tied behind their back.
Folarin Balogun was sent off against Bosnia and Herzegovina and is suspended, which robs Mauricio Pochettino of his main striker at the worst possible time.
The USA beat Bosnia 2-0 with ten men, so there is fight in this group.
Whether there are goals without Balogun is the question the whole of America is asking.
Belgium, for their part, are not the machine the badge suggests.
They needed a penalty in the 125th minute to beat Senegal 3-2 after trailing 2-0, which is either a sign of champion spirit or a warning that this defence can be opened up by anyone brave enough to run at it.
De Bruyne still pulls the strings, Lukaku still occupies centre-backs, Courtois still saves what he should not.
But a side that hands Senegal a two-goal head start is a side you can hurt.
For the USA, the plan is obvious even if the personnel are not.
Press, run, ride the crowd, and hope someone stone-cold finishes the chances Balogun would normally gobble.
Pochettino has built a team that competes; tonight he needs one that scores.
If it stays level into the last half hour, Seattle gets very loud and Belgium's nerves get very real.
Projected USA XI: Matt Turner; Sergino Dest, Chris Richards, Tim Ream, Antonee Robinson; Tyler Adams, Weston McKennie; Timothy Weah, Gio Reyna, Christian Pulisic; Ricardo Pepi.
Projected Belgium XI: Thibaut Courtois; Timothy Castagne, Wout Faes, Zeno Debast, Maxim De Cuyper; Amadou Onana, Youri Tielemans; Jeremy Doku, Kevin De Bruyne, Leandro Trossard; Romelu Lukaku.
Key absences/team news: The USA are without top scorer Folarin Balogun, suspended after his red card against Bosnia and Herzegovina, leaving Ricardo Pepi in line to lead the line.
Belgium came through 125 minutes against Senegal, so fatigue and freshness are Rudi Garcia's main concerns rather than any new injury.
Prediction: USA 1-2 Belgium.
Tip: Both teams to score. Belgium leak chances every time they play and the crowd will drag a USA goal out of somewhere, but Belgium carry the individual quality to answer back.
Banker Of The Day
Spain to qualify. The safest thing on the card.
Nobody has scored against them yet, their midfield controls games without breaking sweat.
And Portugal's attack has been running on Ronaldo's name rather than Ronaldo's form.
Spain do not need to be spectacular here.
They just need to be themselves.
Upset Special
USA to knock Belgium out.
Yes, even without Balogun.
Belgium spotted Senegal two goals and needed extra time to survive, and this USA side plays with more organisation and more venom than the Red Devils have faced so far.
Add a raucous Seattle crowd and a co-host that refuses to go quietly, and De Bruyne's crew could be flying home earlier than the odds suggest.
I have seen enough of this Belgium to trust none of it.
Two favourites, two very different levels of comfort.
Spain look like a team that knows exactly what it is.
Belgium look like a team hoping nobody notices what it has become.
By tomorrow morning, one giant from each tie is out of this World Cup for good.
18+. Bet responsibly. Odds and team news correct at the time of writing.
