France haven't conceded in the knockouts. Spain have won 7 of the last 10 between them. Our France vs Spain prediction, team news and tip.
The two best teams in this World Cup meet on Tuesday, and one of them is going home. That is the whole tragedy of a bracket.
France have won all six matches. They have not conceded a single goal in the entire knockout stage.
Mbappe has eight goals, Olise has six assists, and they dismantled Morocco without getting out of third gear.
On paper, they are the most complete side left standing.
Then you look at the head-to-head and the paper starts curling at the edges.
Spain have won seven of the last ten meetings between these two.
They knocked France out of Euro 2024 at this exact stage.
They have lost one of their last 27 major tournament matches.
Whatever France are doing to everyone else, Spain have made a habit of not caring.
So which one do you trust, the form or the history? I am taking the form, and I will explain why below.
Win, and you play Argentina or England at MetLife on Sunday.
Lose, and you fly to Miami for the third-place match nobody wants.
France have not conceded a goal in this entire knockout stage.
Spain have beaten them in seven of the last ten. Somebody's record is dying in Dallas.
The Tie
This is a final that arrived a round early, and both teams know it.
France are the tournament's most fearsome attacking machine, 16 goals, the most shots on target per game of any nation, and a knockout record of Sweden, Paraguay and Morocco dispatched without conceding once.
Deschamps has built a side that lets you have the ball and then kills you the second you lose it.
Mbappe is the first player ever to score eight or more in back-to-back World Cups, and he has 20 goals in 20 World Cup appearances.
Feed him one chance and the semi-final is over.
Spain are the opposite kind of dangerous.
They control, they circulate, they wait for a crack, and then somebody off the bench decides it.
That is not a criticism, it is a warning.
Every knockout win they have has been by a single goal, and Mikel Merino has come off the bench to score the winner in both of the last two.
This is a team that does not need to be brilliant to beat you.
It just needs 90 minutes and a bit of patience, and it has both.
The tie hinges on two duels.
First, Yamal drifting inside onto his left foot against Lucas Digne, the teenager already has three goals in two career games against France, including in that Euro 2024 semi-final, and he has grown into this tournament with every match since returning from injury.
Second, and more important, whether Aurelien Tchouameni can play.
He has missed the last two games with a muscle problem and is a genuine game-time decision.
He is France's best ball-winner, and he is the man who stops Rodri and Pedri running the game.
Without him, Deschamps is asking Manu Kone to solve Spain's midfield on his own.
Mbappe took an ankle knock against Morocco and was withdrawn in the 77th minute with ice strapped to it.
He says he is fine. He is expected to start.
But if he is at 85% and Tchouameni is missing, that is two of France's most important players compromised in the game where they can least afford it.
Spain, meanwhile, arrive with a clean bill of health and not a single suspension between them.
Projected France XI: Mike Maignan; Jules Kounde, Dayot Upamecano, William Saliba, Lucas Digne; Manu Kone, Adrien Rabiot; Ousmane Dembele, Michael Olise, Desire Doue; Kylian Mbappe.
Projected Spain XI: Unai Simon; Pedro Porro, Pau Cubarsi, Aymeric Laporte, Marc Cucurella; Rodri, Pedri, Dani Olmo; Lamine Yamal, Mikel Oyarzabal, Alex Baena.
Key absences/team news: France have no suspensions, all yellow cards were wiped before the last four.
Aurelien Tchouameni (muscle) is a game-time decision after missing the last two matches, with Manu Kone keeping his place if he cannot go.
Kylian Mbappe is expected to start despite the ankle knock picked up against Morocco.
Spain have a clean bill of health with no starter flagged, though Nico Williams and Yeremy Pino remain sidelined, which keeps Alex Baena on the left.
Prediction: France 1-0 Spain.
Tip: Under 2.5 goals. Only four of Spain's last 16 games have seen both teams score, every Spanish knockout win has been by a single goal, and France have not conceded in four matches. Two elite defences, one moment of quality — this does not become a shootout.
Banker Of The Day
France to qualify. Everyone wants to talk about the head-to-head, and I understand why, Spain have won seven of the last ten and knocked France out of Euro 2024 at this exact stage.
But that is history, and history does not track back to cover Mbappe.
Look at what is actually happening in this tournament: France have won six from six and have not conceded a single goal in the knockout rounds.
Spain have needed a substitute to rescue them in each of their last two, winning every knockout tie by one goal. One of those teams is in control.
The other is surviving.
Yes, Spain have the midfield. Rodri and Pedri will have the ball, and if Tchouameni does not make it, France will spend long spells chasing.
But having the ball against this France side is a trap, not an advantage, it is exactly the state they want you in.
Mbappe and Dembele do not need territory.
They need one turnover and forty yards of grass, and Spain's high line hands them both.
The counter-argument is real and I will not pretend otherwise: Yamal has scored three in two against France and he is getting sharper by the game.
If he beats Digne early, this all looks very different.
But France have not been beaten by anybody at this World Cup, and I am not backing against a defence that has kept four clean sheets on the run because of results from two years ago.
Spain are the better story. France are the better team right now. Tuesday, the better team goes through.
18+. Bet responsibly. Odds and team news correct at the time of writing.
