Mexico vs South Africa: Can Bafana Spoil the Party?

Mexico vs South Africa opens the 2026 World Cup, and the hosts are heavy favourites. But Bafana have shocked them before. Here's our call.

World Cup Daily: Day One — Mexico Reopen the Party, and Lagos Isn't Cheering for Bafana

The wait is over, and the World Cup hands us a slice of history on day one: the exact fixture that opened 2010, with the roles flipped. 

Back then it was Johannesburg, vuvuzelas, and Siphiwe Tshabalala bending the roof off Soccer City for the hosts. 

This time South Africa are the visitors, and it's Mexico's Azteca, Mexico's crowd, and Mexico's party to lose.

Two Group A games today, no permutations yet — just nerves, altitude, and the specific terror of a first World Cup match where every loose touch feels like a national inquiry. 

Mexico are the favourites and they look it. 

The quieter, better contest might be the one that keeps you up into the early hours: Son Heung-min, in what is almost certainly his final World Cup, against a Czech side nobody fancied to even get here.

And there's an edge to the opener you won't get from the neutral broadcasters. 

Bafana don't have the continent behind them the way they did in 2010. 

A year of anti-migrant attacks on Nigerians and other Africans in South Africa, plus a South African sports minister who openly said he wanted the Super Eagles to miss this World Cup has drained the goodwill clean away. 

Plenty in Lagos will be backing Mexico tonight, and not quietly.

Mexico vs South Africa — Group A, 8pm (UK), Estadio Azteca

Does anyone actually fancy South Africa here? 

Mexico haven't lost all year, they put five past Serbia in their final warm-up, and they open their own World Cup at altitude with the Azteca roaring them on. 

Javier Aguirre's side aren't world-beaters. 

They don't have to be tonight. Competent and loud will do the job.

Bafana Bafana arrive flatter than the romance suggests. 

A goalless draw with Nicaragua and a 1-1 behind closed doors with Jamaica is not the form line of a side about to mug the hosts. 

Hugo Broos has Lyle Foster leading the line, a Burnley striker who knows all about grafting against better defenders and both Thapelo Morena and Mohau Nkota didn't even make the trip through injury.

Openers are strange, though, and South Africa have done this exact thing before. 

Sixteen years ago, on home soil in Johannesburg, Tshabalala scored one of the great World Cup goals and held Mexico to a draw on this same opening-night billing. 

The roles are reversed now and the crowd is hostile, but the lesson stands: nerves and ceremony make favourites human for an hour. 

Frustrate Mexico early and the Azteca gets twitchy.

That twitchiness is the only door open to South Africa, and it's a narrow one. 

Mexico have more quality, more territory, and a nation shoving them forward. Bafana walking out with a respectable scoreline is the realistic ceiling.

Projected Mexico XI (4-3-3): Rangel; Sanchez, Montes, Alvarez, Gallardo; Gutierrez, Fidalgo, Pineda; Alvarado, Jimenez, Quinones.

Projected South Africa XI (4-3-3): Williams; Mudau, Mbokazi, Okon, Modiba; Mokoena, Sithole, Mbatha; Appollis, Foster, Mofokeng.

Team news: No confirmed line-ups yet. Mexico are without injured keeper Luis Angel Malagon and midfielder Marcel Ruiz, with Raul Rangel set to start in goal and 40-year-old Guillermo Ochoa as cover. South Africa's Aubrey Modiba had a fitness scare but is expected to be available.

Prediction: Mexico 2-0

Tip: Mexico to win (Banker of the day). Unbeaten all year, rampant at home, and up against a side that hasn't scored in open play across its last two friendlies.

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South Korea vs Czech — Group A, 3am (UK), Estadio Akron

This is the one the purists set an alarm for. 

Son Heung-min, 33, two goals shy of South Korea's all-time scoring record, and starting what is surely his final World Cup, leads a side that are dark horses despite a midfield patched together with injuries. 

Czech are back at a World Cup for the first time in twenty years, and they got here by winning two penalty shootouts in five days, which tells you everything about their nerve. 

Patrik Schick is a genuine tournament striker, their manager has coached all of two competitive games, and that mix of grit and chaos makes them awkward on opening night.

Projected South Korea XI (3-4-3): Kim Seung-gyu; Lee Gi-hyuk, Kim Min-jae, Lee Han-beom; Seol Young-woo, Hwang In-beom, Paik Seung-ho, Lee Tae-seok; Hwang Hee-chan, Lee Jae-sung; Son Heung-min.

Projected Czechia shape (3-4-2-1): Schick leading the line, Tomas Soucek driving the midfield and the set-piece threat. Full XI unconfirmed.

Team news: Cho Yu-min is out for Korea with a foot injury and Bae Jun-ho is a doubt. No confirmed XIs from either camp yet.

Prediction: South Korea 1-1 Czechia

Tip: Draw (upset special). Everyone's backing Son's send-off; nobody's pricing in a Czech side that's just won two shootouts and flat-out refuses to lose.

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