World Cup Permutations: Is it over for the Super Eagles?

Nigeria's tense World Cup qualification scenarios: auto-qualify via SAfrica slip & Benin win; or top-4 2nd place playoffs amid Eritrea deductions.

 

The Super Eagles have entered a state of flux; how will this World Cup race unfold? (Photo credit: Africa Now)

Million-dollar question: How can Nigeria qualify for the World Cup?

1.⁠ ⁠Automatic Qualification Scenario

A. South Africa draws/loses vs. Rwanda, and Nigeria wins Benin by any margin + clean sheet; Nigeria qualifies automatically.

B. S/Africa wins: no World Cup for Nigeria, regardless of scoreline vs. Benin.

C. S/Africa drop points & Benin draw or win against Nigeria, Benin qualifies automatically.

2.⁠ ⁠Best 2nd Place/Playoffs Scenario + Eritrea Withdrawal Factor

•⁠ ⁠The top 4 best 2nd-placed teams will go the playoff route. As you read this, the following will be the 'contenders' for the top 4 best 2nd-placed teams 'AFTER' due point deductions as a result of Eritrea's withdrawal.

•⁠ ⁠Gabon on 22 pts (-6 points, -7 GD) = 16 pts (9 matches, 1 more to go)

•⁠ ⁠Burkina Faso on 21 pts (-6 points -9 GD) = 15 pts (10 matches, done!)

•⁠ ⁠Cameroon on 18 pts (-4 points, -3 GD) = 14 pts (9 matches, 1 more to go)

•⁠ ⁠DR Congo on 19 pts (-6 points, -4 GD) = 13 pts (9 matches, 1 more to go)

•⁠ ⁠Uganda on 18 pts (-6 points, -3 GD) = 12 pts (9 matches, 1 more to go)

•⁠ ⁠Nigeria on 14 pts (-2 points, -0 GD) = 12 pts (9 matches, 1 more to go)

Now, because of the points deductions as a result of Eritrea's withdrawal

A. Nigeria needs one or both of Cameroon and DR Congo to drop points in their final games. However, if they both win, they will finish higher than Nigeria. Cameroon plays today, and DR Congo plays on Tuesday.

B. Nigeria needs Uganda to drop points in their final game away vs Algeria to finish higher than them (Uganda).

C. To finish ahead of B/Faso, Nigeria must beat Benin by 'at least' a 3-goal margin.

Summary:

For Nigeria to be 'safe' just in case S/Africa wins Rwanda, the Super Eagles MUST beat Benin by a '3-goal margin'.

However, if S/Africa drops points (loses or draws), any win + clean sheet will suffice against Benin.

This'll be the most dramatic & traumatic qualifiers in the continent's history!

This will go down to the wire! 'No team' on the 'brink of qualification' is 'guaranteed' (not just Nigeria) until the referees in ALL the match venues blow their whistles.

Until then, it is NOT over!