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Arsenal, Dortmund or Napoli can still qualify from the Group of Death [Permutations Graphic]


UEFA Champions league Group F was tagged the group of death as soon as the draw was made  and it has lived up to expectations, though Olympique Marseille have been poor losing all their games so far in the group.

Napoli, Arsenal and Dortmund still stand a chance to qualify, Arsenal with 12 points, Dortmund and Napoli with 9 points respectively.

Although Arsenal and Dortmund look like clear favorites to qualify.

Above is a graphic of explaining the permutations of the group.

Below is the ESPN’s analysis on Group F – click here for permutations of all the Champions League groups as it currently stands.

Group F Remaining fixtures: Napoli vs. Arsenal, Marseille vs. Dortmund

Has any team qualified yet? No, though Marseille have been eliminated from Europe altogether with zero points.

Who can still qualify? It’s exceptionally close and the group is still on track for an amazing three-way 12-point tie at the top. Arsenal and Dortmund are very strong favourites to go through though. Arsenal only need to avoid defeat to Napoli by three or more goals to guarantee their place, while Napoli will go through if they better Dortmund’s result. However, if both Napoli and Dortmund win then we have three teams on 12 points and a mini-league is created just involving the results of those teams. In that scenario Dortmund are guaranteed to qualify, as their mini-league goal difference is +1 and cannot change; Arsenal have +2 and Napoli -3. Because of this Napoli can only qualify from the mini-league if they beat Arsenal by three goals, which would dump the Gunners into the Europa League.

Finally, here are the UEFA official tie break rules from on the Champions League group stages:

1) higher number of points obtained in the group matches played among the teams in question;
2) superior goal difference from the group matches played among the teams in question;
3) higher number of goals scored in the group matches played among the teams in question;
4) higher number of goals scored away from home in the group matches played among the teams in question;
5) If, after applying criteria 1) to 4) to several teams, two teams still have an equal ranking, criteria 1) to 4) are reapplied exclusively to the matches between the two teams in question to determine their final rankings. If this procedure does not lead to a decision, criteria 6) to 8) apply;
6) superior goal difference from all group matches played;
7) higher number of goals scored from all group matches played;
8) higher number of coefficient points accumulated by the club in question, as well as its association, over the previous five seasons.

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UEFA Champions League 1348876185653102337

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